ATCF Forecasts Not Updating

Errors and unexpected results
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stormchasing101
Posts: 37
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2015 6:24 am

ATCF Forecasts Not Updating

Post by stormchasing101 »

Hello,

I was creating a bundle for Matthew displaying the IR 10.7um with the spaghetti models and overlaying the GFS mslp in contours. I noticed that the forecast data on the ATCF models haven't updated since 9-25-2016 at 1pm while the observational data is current. Is this an error on my end or does anyone else have this problem too? Thanks

--Carl
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stormchasing101
Posts: 37
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2015 6:24 am

Re: ATCF Forecasts Not Updating

Post by stormchasing101 »

Hmmm now I'm puzzled. The ATCF file initially loads, but when I try to load the tracks from the storms it now creates a memory leak and never does load now. I can't recall changing anything on the program. I am running the latest nightly build. Thanks

--Carl
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bobc
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Joined: Mon Nov 15, 2010 5:57 pm

Re: ATCF Forecasts Not Updating

Post by bobc »

Hi Carl -

Yesterday afternoon I verified your finding that the forecasts weren't up-to-date. I tried investigating this by starting with the Storm Track Controls page in the McIDAS-V User's Guide. This page has a link to the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) webpage, which is the project that generates the data that McIDAS-V uses to load the tracks. There's a disclaimer at the top of the ATCF page that says:

Disclaimer : The forecasts displayed here are the latest received at NRL, and may not be current. NRL collects these forecasts for ATCF project development, and is not responsible for their use in forecasting. Concerned customers should confirm these forecasts with official sources.


I believe this was a case where the ATCF forecast data wasn't up-to-date, as I wasn't seeing any errors on the McIDAS-V side.

This morning, I'm replicating the problem of observation tracks from 2016 storms (including Matthew) not displaying. I checked this with yesterday's (10/4) nightly, as well as stable McIDAS-V 1.6 and the IDV 5.3 (a software package from Unidata), and this 2016 data won't display in any of them. I was able to go back and display tracks from 2015 and 2008 so it looks like their archived data is working fine, though it did take some time to load. Since the observation track of Matthew was up-to-date and displaying as of yesterday afternoon, I'm thinking this is another data availability issue. Perhaps their servers are being hit too hard?

I'll keep an eye on this through the day and let you know if there's any improvement with 2016 observation tracks and forecast latency.

Thanks -
Bob Carp
McIDAS Help Desk
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bobc
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Re: ATCF Forecasts Not Updating

Post by bobc »

Hi Carl -

As of right now I'm able to load in the observation track for Matthew, though it does take ~10 minutes for the data to display. After this is complete, I'm able to display forecast tracks and some of them are up-to-date. For example, the DSHP and GFTI (along with many others) forecasts for Matthew are currently from 2016-10-05 18:00:00Z (~3 hours ago). These forecast tracks display very quickly once the initial load of the observed track has completed.

- Bob
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stormchasing101
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Re: ATCF Forecasts Not Updating

Post by stormchasing101 »

Thanks Bob,

I'm glad that it loads up still, I guess I just need to be more patient on the load. I didn't remember it taking that long last week. ;)

--Carl
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